Task 5-Contemporary Technology Responses - Personal Decision Making tools

                        Task 5-Contemporary Technology Responses - Personal Decision Making tools


I read the 2 articles about rational decision making and overconfidence with rational decision making includes identifying the problem, good research, creating solutions, making the decision. Overconfidence can be defined as overestimating our capabilities in other we think we can do more than what we are capable of. The 2 most interesting things I learnt about overconfidence were:


1) People overestimated their abilities.
2) The confirmation bias.


I did not realize that overestimating ones own ability actually affected their decision making process. An interesting point that I took away from the readings was that physiologically if you are not aware of the problem of overconfidence you can not rectify it in decision making. Also that overcome is not entirely a negative issue. I use sport as an example of this if you are not confident of your ability it will affect your performance. Having awareness of overconfidence means that managers can insure that do not allow themselves to be overconfident when making decisions within the workplace


When people make decisions you look for confirmation to confirm you have made the right decision.
Looking at one perspective is limiting. To help remedy a confirmation bias managers should consider that they might be wrong, and also get other peoples ideas as to what counter arguments might exist.


In my experience in which I have previously been overconfident some of my decisions been less than fruitful as I did this intuitively rather than knowing about MBA decision making processes I have learnt during my studies.  As a consequence I now seek other people opinions and also have a more consultative approach. Also in a workplace environment I would put in place policies that would be more consultative to avoids overconfidence. Also I believe ego plays a part in overconfidence and I have worked in previous jobs where workmates had huge egos which led to overconfidence, These people usually were not the better performing workers So I would ensure that I would be mindful of egotistical behaviour.


One important aspect of decision making is understanding limits of our own knowledge. In a global world where managers are dealing with global workforces, global decisions and making decisions that affect diverse cultures I would argue that it is extremely important that managers understand that their limitations and knowledge.






Links for further research:










 https://www.mindtools.com/pages/main/newMN_TED.htm








http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/6162-decision-making.html








http://www.minddecider.com/Articles.Decision-making_software_review.htm

Task 3. Decision making issues -uncertainty, biases, in personal and group decision making.

An important decision that I made recently was to exit the contract mining industry to develop technologies such as a new indigenous health app. I have 20 years of experience in the mining industry however the mining industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn and opportunities are becoming less viable.




I felt uncomfortable at the time because I was moving in a direction that I had limited knowledge of. On the other hand I felt energized that I was leaving the contract mining industry and moving into an area which I feel has enormous potential and also creating products that are beneficial to the community. I had control over the decision however I am reliant on other people to assist me in developing the app also securing funding for the project. I feel confident that these 2 challenges are not insurmountable.




In making this decision I faced a period of uncertainty which required that I do further research. I identified a few experts in the area of Indigenous health and consulted with them which then gave me reassurance that there was a need for this product. One of the key components to this decision was the uncertainty of moving into a new area which is reflected in the model of decision making as follows.http://imgkid.com/decision-making-models-examples.shtml



After the relevant consultation I then made the decision to proceed with the app project as there was a gap in this market. In reflection of the experience in which I did the relevant research and also sought expert advice before I made my decision. What is interesting is that I usually use fast intuitive decision making (System 1) whereas in this situation I was inclined to (System 2) which is slower rational fact based decision making process. The benefit that I found was that it is more advantageous to follow a decision making process when making a decision of this magnitude. In part this reflects my entry into a new fields of expertise in that I need to underpin my decisions with good research and facts based findings.  Where as in the mining industry I because of my experience I could be more intuitive.




In future I intend to use the System 2 model more regularly  particularly when I faced with a decision that has more risks involved.




Links for further research:






http://quickbase.intuit.com/blog/5-biases-in-decision-making-part-2






https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/avoiding-psychological-bias.htm






http://study.com/academy/lesson/decision-making-for-managers-certainty-risk-uncertainty.html

Task 2- Inputs to decision making-data, information and knowledge :systems analysis

 
The problem I encountered in the workplace was in which I was co-ordinating Aboriginal Heritage surveys. The problem was that the elders who had to participate in the survey were becoming very elderly and them having to go on long distances in remote country was not good for their health. The mining company and myself identified this issue and decided to have a meeting to work out a solution for this.


At our meeting we put forward various solutions that could enable the elders to participate without any adverse effects to their health. We identified 2 solutions one being that we expand the survey time but this was not feasible as we had time constraints upon us. The second solution was that bring in a helicopter to make it quicker and more accessible to reach isolated areas. One of the problems was that the helicopter could only fit in a few people and we had 10 elders a compromise was that a few elders would do the surveys but everybody got paid the same amount.


The company was in agreement to this and we had a have consensus from the elders which was provided. It was important that the elders agree because they each hold different information and knowledge about their country. The company had to agree in order to satisfy their legal requirements not to damage any heritage sites as they wanted to show respect and not be prosecuted under legislation. So they could convert the Indigenous traditional knowledge into a western style format. 


We then hired a helicopter which was more convenient at the time and the elders were happy with this as it enabled them to complete the surveys quicker.  Both parties were engaged in risk minimisation. The mining company is held accountable by western law for any damage to heritage sites. The elders are also held accountable by traditional law for any damage to heritage sites. Both parties can be punished according to their own law for any damage to heritage sites.


 The paradox for Aboriginal people is sometimes even revealing a sacred site to an initiated party they can then be held accountable to traditional law. This can be a significant barrier to the passing on of information.

According to the Stacey Matrix  this could be put into the areas of complexity in in that there are complex decision to be made to come to a satisfactory answer.


Links for further research:


http://gp-training.net/training/communication_skills/consultation/equipoise/complexity/stacey.htm


http://www.bpminstitute.org/resources/articles/role-decision-modeling-business-decision-management

http://tlainc.com/articl134.htm

Task 1- Decision Making Typologies

Simon's normative model of decision making is a model that consists of 3 steps which are intelligence, design and choice. The first step which is the intelligence step involve identifying a problem and deciding that a decision needs to be made about the problem. The design phase of Simon's normative model is concerned with developing possibilities and potential solutions. The final step is making a choice or decision that is acted upon.




In the world of academia this is a great start for understanding the decision making process and use reflection and analysis in the decision making process. A recent family decision I had to make in relation to my son and daughter regarding their schooling. They were going to a school that was very close to my house and more convenient concerning distance. It became apparent to me that my children were not going to fit into this school for a variety of reasons.
I had to make a decision very quickly regarding their ongoing education. According to Simon's
model I identified the problem being that the school was not suitable for my children and immediately I started researching as to why the school was not suitable. I did this by talking to the school Principal and by talking to a few Teachers. Conducting the research is the second part of Simon's model was to think about the options available to my family.



ttps://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/decision-tree-15515931.jpg




The 2 clear choices were to leave them at the school or find another school that was suitable to the requirements of my kids. I then went to another school nearby and explained my issues to the Principal who was very supportive and made the offer that the kids could enrol at that school immediately. The choice phase according to Simon's model is where we make a decision according to the alternatives available.




My decision was to enrol the children immediately at the new school immediately and they started the next day at their new school. At the time I felt this was the correct decision to make and was vindicated with the kids fitting in very well. In reviewing my decision I believe I made the right decision at the time. We are now  6 months down the track it has proven to be a very good decision as the children are performing better at school and the school has some very good programs that are culturally appropriate and will benefit the development of my children.






Links for further research:








http://www.unf.edu/~gbaker/Man6204/Decision.PDF






http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14706973






http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10845-010-0424-1