Sunday, 21 August 2016

Task 3. Decision making issues -uncertainty, biases, in personal and group decision making.



An important decision that I made recently was to exit the contract mining industry to develop technologies such as a new indigenous health app. I have 20 years of experience in the mining industry however the mining industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn and opportunities are becoming less viable.




I felt uncomfortable at the time because I was moving in a direction that I had limited knowledge of. On the other hand I felt energized that I was leaving the contract mining industry and moving into an area which I feel has enormous potential and also creating products that are beneficial to the community. I had control over the decision however I am reliant on other people to assist me in developing the app also securing funding for the project. I feel confident that these 2 challenges are not insurmountable.




In making this decision I faced a period of uncertainty which required that I do further research. I identified a few experts in the area of Indigenous health and consulted with them which then gave me reassurance that there was a need for this product. One of the key components to this decision was the uncertainty of moving into a new area which is reflected in the model of decision making as follows.http://imgkid.com/decision-making-models-examples.shtml


http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=classical+model+of+decision+making+image&id=6AE23D733D45E535A449B66546ADD4F79C32033A&FORM=IQFRBA
After the relevant consultation I then made the decision to proceed with the app project as there was a gap in this market. In reflection of the experience in which I did the relevant research and also sought expert advice before I made my decision. What is interesting is that I usually use fast intuitive decision making (System 1) whereas in this situation I was inclined to (System 2) which is slower rational fact based decision making process. The benefit that I found was that it is more advantageous to follow a decision making process when making a decision of this magnitude. In part this reflects my entry into a new fields of expertise in that I need to underpin my decisions with good research and facts based findings.  Where as in the mining industry I because of my experience I could be more intuitive.




In future I intend to use the System 2 model more regularly  particularly when I faced with a decision that has more risks involved.




Links for further research:






http://quickbase.intuit.com/blog/5-biases-in-decision-making-part-2






https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/avoiding-psychological-bias.htm






http://study.com/academy/lesson/decision-making-for-managers-certainty-risk-uncertainty.html

1 comment:

  1. In this blog Graeme has been confronted with a complex decision that needs the issues to be considered with a decision making approach requiring a systems approach. It has been articulated that the decision was out of his comfort zone and the decision had the potential to be resolved in manner that would not address any issues, even as I may say create a range of more complex issues. I am however impressed by the recognition and acknowledgement that this may be a process that is beyond his capabilities or if not within the expertise of the people that are decision makers within the process. The result was obtained from within a system 2 decision making process which required that intelligence gathering and information prioritisation to progress toward a desired outcome. Graeme was challenged and it required courage from him to not be susceptible to the unconscious bias through system 1 thinking and persevere for an inclusive and consultative approach for a considered, appropriate resolution of the issue.

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